Global Warming Scam Part 7

2.1.11. TEMPERATURE OSCILLATION
The IPCC (Solomon et al. 2008) does not seem to envisage that global temperatures might fluctuate or oscillate, perhaps accompanied by oscillating energy “imbalances” something Hansen et al. (2005) cannot believe in either. Schlesinger and Ramankutty (1994) applied a statistical technique called “singular spectrum analysis” to four global-mean surface temperature records which had been de-trended by means of a simple climate/ocean model based on the supposed radiative forcing due the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.

Three global-mean surface temperature records (Jones, Hansen, Vinnikov 1992) de-trended by a simple climate/ocean model were compared with singular spectrum analysis of the same data. The mean length of the oscillation identified was estimated as 65, 66, 70 and 69 years for the four temperature records studied. They also applied the technique to 11 geographical subsets of the data of Jones et al. (1991). Similar results were obtained for all regions, with the best agreement shown by North Atlantic, North America, and Eurasia.

In a later paper Andronova and Schlesinger (2000) removed the modelled effects of the supposed anthropogenic warming, volcanoes and the sun from the updated record of Jones (1999) and confirmed the presence and further progress of the previously identified oscillation shown in Figure 1.5 to 1999. Klyashtorin and Lyubishin (2003) have recently independently confirmed this “quasi-cyclic fluctuation” with about a 60 year period in the surface record of Jones et al. (2001) and they have demonstrated the existence of a variation of 50-60 years interval in reconstructed temperatures for the past 1000 years. The oscillation identified by Schlesinger and Ramankutty (1994) can be seen in a range of temperature records, global, regional and local. In many of these the postulated anthropogenic contribution is not evident. The steady temperature increase supposedly due to anthropogenic causes seems to have ceased since 2002.

The mean global surface temperature anomaly record shows a temperature increase imposed on the oscillation, which is not present in most other records, such as those shown below, so it is an artefact of the methods used in the collection and processing of the surface temperature data rather than an indication of warming from increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The oscillatory behaviour often appears to be discontinuous. For example, Trenberth (1990) identified a “climate shift” in the Northern Hemisphere between 1976 and 1977. Karl et al. (2000) found climate shifts in 1912, 1945 as well as the 1976 shift.

2.1.12. OCEAN OSCILLATIONS
Schlesinger and Ramankutty (1994) and Andronova and Schlesinger (2000) ignored the important climatic effects of the various ocean oscillations. Trenberth et al. (2000) focused on the most important one, the El Niño Southern Oscillation of the Pacific and derived a linear equation which was used to remove El Niño from the surface record. This corrected record removed most of the oscillation, but not the very large El Niño of 1998 or for subsequent years. Tsonis et al. (2007) have shown that synchronous behaviour of the various ocean oscillations can provide an explanation for this 65-70 year global and local oscillation in temperature. The various climate shifts can be related to particular changes in the he El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO).

The El Niño ocean oscillation event of 1998 shows little temperature change from its inception in 1979. The period since then appears to correspond with the expected final peak of the oscillation. There was a “climate shift” in 2001 after which steady temperatures have persisted until the present. Again, this record shows no evidence of a long-term upwards temperature trend which could be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. (Vincent Gray)